Four moves for telling a genuine dead end apart from a rough stretch, not a general essay on following your gut.
01
Separate a bad month from a bad fit
One rough stretch isn't a verdict on the whole job. Look at a rolling pattern over a quarter, not the week you happened to ask yourself the question.
02
Name what you're actually optimizing for
Growth, money, stability, and title all trade off differently. Get specific about which one is actually missing before you go looking for the next thing.
03
Have the internal conversation before the external one
Tell your manager what's not working before you tell a recruiter. Most fixable problems never actually get raised out loud: that's usually why they stay unfixed.
04
Don't let a counteroffer be the reason you stay
A counteroffer fixes the money, not whatever made you start looking. Ask yourself honestly if you'd still want to leave even if the raise wasn't on the table.